Coronavirus outbreak rates and positive test results continue to decline in California and the Bay Area, signaling that the region is finally on the downside of record COVID-19 growth this summer, fueled by successive waves of omicron sub-variants.
But while the worst may already be over, the amount of the virus in the community remains significantly higher than in April before the spike, and hospitalizations – a delayed rate of infection – are still high.
Health officials warn of complacency and the possible emergence of new versions of the virus that could extend the pandemic into fall. They recommend that people be vigilant against infection or reinfection through vaccination, booster doses, and voluntary indoor masking.
“We are certainly in the right place, but we cannot ignore the virus,” said Peter Chin-Hong, an infectious disease specialist at UCSF. “Things can get unpredictable.”
Although the case peak peaked a few weeks ago, the continued fluctuation in the reported figures has not allowed us to be confident about the downward trend so far.
According to state data, the Bay Area reported an average of 34 coronavirus cases per day per 100,000 inhabitants as of Friday. That’s 35% less than a month ago. But it remains well above the baseline of 6 cases per 100,000 seen in April after the end of winter omicron growth.
The decline in cases is underlined by the recent decline in the number of coronavirus particles found in Bay Area wastewater samples. Wastewater monitoring can offer a broader picture of the virus concentration in the community as it traps the wastewater of everyone and does not depend on whether people are tested or whether they have used a home quick antigen test kit.
California has 37 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, dropping gradually from about 50 to 100,000 in July. The state surpassed 10 million COVID cases recorded since the start of the pandemic on Friday.
“This is a longer phase of high transmission than in previous periods,” said Louise Rogers, San Mateo County health officer, in this week’s update. She pointed to the existence of a resistance-resistant BA.5 omicron sub-variant that causes new infections and reinfections, even among those who caught the original omicron variant.
Hospitalization rates are slowly declining statewide, but are stable in the Bay Area. According to data from the health department, the average number of people hospitalized per day with confirmed COVID-19 infections in California increased from around 3,500 in early July to 4,686 at the end of the month. This means an increase of 34% in one month.
The Bay Area reported 883 people hospitalized for COVID-19 on Friday, compared to 748 on July 4. Deaths remain significantly lower than in earlier phases of the pandemic, stable at around 42 per day statewide.
The statewide positive test rate, which tracks the average number of positive tests for the coronavirus, remains close to 15% – a rate that has fallen slightly since its last high of 16% in mid-July.
Infectious disease experts believe that this rate should be below 5% to effectively control the spread of the virus.
Dr Bob Wachter, chairman of UCSF’s medical department and pandemic expert, said the reported cases likely accounted for around one fifth of the real cases due to the widespread use of home tests that are not reported to the authorities. However, the trendline for the official numbers is pointing downwards.
Despite overall improvements, only three of California’s 58 counties – Lassen, Plumas and San Luis Obispo – were classified as having “low” COVID-19 levels in the community on Friday, according to data released by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Another 27 counties, mostly in the eastern half of the state, but including Marin and Santa Cruz, have a “moderate” COVID-19 community. And almost all of the major population centers, including most of the counties inside and outside the gulf, are “high” community levels.
The CDC strongly recommends Universal Interior Masking for the counties included in this classification.
However, many of the area’s residents are keen to contain the pandemic behind them. For the most part, they put aside masking and other coronavirus-related security measures that have helped the region survive previous waves better than most other places.
Schools are slated to reopen in the next two months without masking, testing or vaccinating. People also move and collect more freely as local airports report pre-pandemic numbers and major events return to the Bay Area cultural calendar.
Golden Gate Park is hosting the Outside Lands Festival this weekend with 75,000 attendees each day, followed by the free Lardly Strictly Bluegrass Festival in October, attracting up to 200,000 attendees each day.
“In fact, we are in the COVID world and will be in the foreseeable future,” said Allen Scott, co-founder of Outside Lands and president of concerts and festivals at promotional company Another Planet Entertainment in Berkeley. “I think people are resigned to live with it.”
Chin-Hong said it is unlikely that we will see broad social restraints return, but more targeted, temporary measures are possible if numbers start to rise again.
“You can imagine temporary masking mandates in schools if teachers and staff become ill, as we saw with BART, and in other micro-environments,” he said. “We know they work.”
He attributes the sloppy attitude to a large number of infections over the past few months.
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“The bottom line is that so many people have understood it now,” he said. “If you’ve experienced it, you are not afraid of the unknown anymore. You may think, “So what if I get it again?” Now it is more tangible. People are fed up and willing to take the risk.
Sonoma County Health Officer Dr Sundari Mase told superiors on Tuesday that the most severe effects of COVID-19 – hospitalizations, intensive care admissions and deaths – continued at a better rate compared to summer spikes in 2020 and 2021 ., but insisted that we are not from the woods.
“My message to the community is to be vigilant,” said Mase. “COVID is with us and we must take precautions if we don’t want to get sick. Social responsibility is where we are now. “
While the Bay Area health systems have survived soaring growth without being overburdened, new challenges lie ahead. In addition to the possibility of new variants of the coronavirus emerging, the fall could also bring an influx of flu and monkey pox patients competing for medical resources.
“There will be other risks to hospital beds,” said Chin-Hong. “It’s all a strain on the healthcare system.”
Chronicle writer Catherine Ho contributed to this report.
Aidin Vaziri (he / he) is a writer for the San Francisco Chronicle band. E-mail: avaziri@sfchronicle.com